Geopolitical Risk Premium from DRC and Other Regions Has Not Yet Subsided, Tin Price High-Level Pattern Difficult to Change in Short Term [SMM Tin Midday Review]

On the afternoon of December 5, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2601 contract closed at 317,000 yuan/mt, down 1,380 yuan, a decrease of 0.43%. After opening in the morning, SHFE tin futures moved lower across the board, with the most-traded contract once falling to 313,750 yuan, and futures were in the doldrums. Overnight, LME tin closed down 0.52% at $40,540/mt, and during today's Asian trading session, it came under further pressure, hitting a low of $39,750, reflecting overseas markets' repricing of supply disruptions and demand divergence.

DRC President Felix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame formally signed a peace agreement in Washington, D.C., the US capital, on the 4th, aiming to end a 30-year conflict. The agreement was reached through mediation by multiple parties, including the US and Qatar. Before the signing, US President Donald Trump stated in a speech that the US would also sign bilateral agreements with the DRC and Rwanda that day, "opening new opportunities for the US to access critical minerals." As the situation in the DRC eased, market concerns over mine supply disruptions gradually diminished, and market sentiment also faded.

In the short term, the most-traded SHFE tin contract faces a tug-of-war near the 3.15 million yuan mark. It is expected that SHFE tin will hover at highs during the day, with a reference trading range of 313,000–323,000 yuan/mt.